Deserved to Cover

Every staked bet graded twice: what happened, and what each team's play-by-play efficiency says should have happened (xSpread / xTotal). P(cover) is the chance the bet deserved to cash. The luck ladder runs ROBBED → Unlucky → Fair → Lucky → HEIST. Read more about xTotal and xCover →

Week 8-0.3u

game	final	spread bet	xspread	p(cover)	verdict	total bet	xtotal	p(cover)	verdict	units
ARI@DAL	33-30	DAL -6.5 1u	DAL -0.5▶	17%	L Fair	—	-			-1.00
ATL@TB	0-16	TB -1.5 0u	TB -15.9▶	98%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
BAL@BUF	10-36	BAL +3.5 0u	BAL +19.5▶	2%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
CAR@GB	19-27	GB -4 0u	GB -17.6▶	98%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
CHI@SEA	34-17	CHI +3 0u	CHI -14.3▶	98%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
CLE@PIT	6-27	PIT -3.5 1u	PIT -19.9▶	98%	W Fair	—	-			+0.91
IND@JAX	7-42	IND +7.5 0u	IND +21.9▶	2%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
KC@DEN	24-28	KC -1.5 0u	KC -1.9▶	53%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
LAC@LA	9-24	LA -7 1u	LA -8.4▶	59%	W Fair	—	-			+0.91
LV@NYJ	38-33	NYJ -1 1u	NYJ -5.8▶	78%	L ROBBED	—	-			-1.00
MIN@DET	15-19	MIN +3 0u	MIN +2.9▶	51%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
NE@MIA	24-19	MIA +7.5 0u	MIA +9.7▶	36%	— Fair	—	-			0.00
PHI@WAS	10-27	WAS -5.5 1u	WAS -4.6▶	44%	W Fair	—	-			+0.92
TEN@CIN	36-43	CIN -10.5 1u	CIN -4.4▶	17%	L Fair	—	-			-1.00

Final is away-home. xSpread is the deserved line in the bet team's frame (home frame when no spread bet); xTotal the deserved game total — from a leave-one-season-out play-by-play efficiency model that never saw the game it grades. P(cover) maps the deserved number to the empirical cover rate of bets with that deserved signal (fit on all seasons). Entertainment purposes only — please gamble responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).