Deserved to Cover

Every staked bet graded twice: what happened, and what each team's play-by-play efficiency says should have happened (xSpread / xTotal). P(cover) is the chance the bet deserved to cash. The luck ladder runs ROBBED → Unlucky → Fair → Lucky → HEIST. Read more about xTotal and xCover →

Bets

Hit rate

40%

xHit rate

46.2%

ran 6.2% cold

Units

-10.6u

Lucky / Robbed

2 / 5

wins we stole / losses we didn't deserve

Week

Week 1-9.6u

game	final	spread bet	xspread	p(cover)	verdict	total bet	xtotal	p(cover)	verdict	units
ARI@LAC	26-14	ARI +10 1u	ARI -6.5	98%	W Fair	OVER 47.5 0.5u	48.9	58%	L Unlucky	+0.41
ATL@PIT	13-20	ATL +3.5 1u	ATL +1.6	64%	L Unlucky	UNDER 42 0u	43.4	42%	— Fair	-1.00
BAL@IND	41-23	IND +3.5 2u	IND +20.7	2%	L Fair	OVER 48 0.5u	61.1	97%	W Fair	-1.54
BUF@HOU	36-31	HOU +1 0u	HOU +4.9	23%	— Fair	OVER 44.5 0u	62.9	98%	— Fair	0.00
CHI@CAR	59-37	CAR +3 0.5u	CAR +4.1	42%	L Fair	UNDER 47 0.5u	78.9	2%	L Fair	-1.00
CLE@JAX	10-34	JAX -8.5 0u	JAX -32.2	98%	— Fair	OVER 40.5 1u	42.3	60%	W Fair	+0.91
DAL@NYG	20-28	NYG +3 1u	NYG -9.6	98%	W Fair	UNDER 48.5 0u	51.4	34%	— Fair	+0.88
DEN@KC	10-31	DEN +2.5 0u	DEN +15.5	2%	— Fair	UNDER 43.5 2u	44.2	46%	W Lucky	+1.82
GB@MIN	22-39	GB +1.5 0u	GB +3.9	33%	— Fair	OVER 46 0u	48.4	64%	— Fair	0.00
MIA@LV	13-27	MIA +3.5 2u	MIA +15.3	2%	L Fair	OVER 40.5 2u	46.8	82%	L ROBBED	-4.00
NE@SEA	10-13	SEA -3.5 0u	SEA +0.9	21%	— Fair	OVER 44.5 2u	28.2	2%	L Fair	-2.00
NO@DET	30-31	NO +7 0u	NO +3.4	75%	— Fair	UNDER 50 0.5u	57.7	13%	L Fair	-0.50
NYJ@TEN	23-10	NYJ +1.5 0u	NYJ -14.2	98%	— Fair	OVER 39.5 0.5u	32.7	16%	L Fair	-0.50
SF@LA	27-7	SF +3.5 0u	SF -9.1	98%	— Fair	OVER 48.5 0u	46	36%	— Fair	0.00
TB@CIN	27-33	TB +4 2u	TB +8.6	20%	L Fair	UNDER 50.5 1u	46.5	72%	L ROBBED	-3.00
WAS@PHI	22-24	WAS +5 1u	WAS -0.2	83%	W Fair	UNDER 44.5 1u	33	95%	L ROBBED	-0.09

Final is away-home. xSpread is the deserved line in the bet team's frame (home frame when no spread bet); xTotal the deserved game total — from a leave-one-season-out play-by-play efficiency model that never saw the game it grades. P(cover) maps the deserved number to the empirical cover rate of bets with that deserved signal (fit on all seasons). Entertainment purposes only — please gamble responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).