Research

Deep dives for the nerds

July 2026

The Shrinking Pie: What Changed for 2026

A decade of fantasy landscape shifts (2016-2025) and what they mean for 2026 drafts: the shrinking offensive pie, WR compression, RB workhorse concentration, TE ascension, and the QB streaming case.

July 2026

Injury Rates: What Actually Predicts Missed Games

Ten seasons, 3,754 player-seasons. RB carry volume is not a signal. Prior 3-year injury history is. Includes 2026 predictions for the top-150 ADP.

February 2025

XFP Model Validation

How XFP predicts future fantasy production. We validate opportunity as a stable, predictive measure and introduce the execution residual.

February 2025

OEX Stability: When to Trust Over-Performance

OEX is not all luck. We prove where execution repeats — and why the real edge is connecting the dots.