Historical Performance
737 graded plays, 6 seasons. Every play scored by a model that never saw that game.
Hit Rate
58.3%
Break-even at −110 is 52.4%ROI +16.8%xHit rate 56.5%
Model Error (MAE)
9.7
Spread — market 9.8Total 10.3 — market 10.4
Closing Line Value
+3.3%
Avg % we beat the closing line
By stake tier
0.5u plays0 plays
- ROI
Win - · CLV -
1u plays737 plays
+16.8% ROI
Win 58.3% · CLV +3.3%
1.5u plays0 plays
- ROI
Win - · CLV -
Cumulative Units
Running profit at −110 across every graded play, chronological. Total +121u.
Units by Season
+33u2021
+34u2022
+17u2023
+24u2024
+13u2025
-11u2026
Favorites, dogs, overs & unders
Favorites386 plays
+10.4% ROI
Win 57.8% · CLV +3.4%
Underdogs351 plays
+23.7% ROI
Win 58.8% · CLV +3.2%
Overs0 plays
- ROI
Win - · CLV -
Unders0 plays
- ROI
Win - · CLV -
By line size
% Bettable = share of games in that range where our number cleared the threshold to flag a play.
Spreads by spread size
Absolute point spread of the game.
| Spread | Plays | % Bettable | Hit rate | xHit rate deserved | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 201 | 54% | 57.2% | 56.9% | +9.3% | +4.6% |
| 3-7 | 334 | 52% | 58.6% | 55.1% | +23.9% | +2.5% |
| 7-10 | 120 | 54% | 59.8% | 59.0% | +14.5% | +3.5% |
| 10+ | 82 | 60% | 57.5% | 57.4% | +9.8% | +2.9% |
Totals by total size
Posted game total (points).
| Total | Plays | % Bettable | Hit rate | xHit rate deserved | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 42 | 0 | 0% | - | - | +0.0% | - |
| 42-45 | 0 | 0% | - | - | +0.0% | - |
| 45-48 | 0 | 0% | - | - | +0.0% | - |
| 48+ | 0 | 0% | - | - | +0.0% | - |
Spreads · 737 plays
Win 58.3% · ROI +16.8% · CLV +3.3% · +121u
Totals · 0 plays
Win - · ROI -% · CLV -% · +0u
Every play was graded on a model that never trained on the game being scored. Staked by the edge ladder in force when the play was graded, standard −110 pricing, pushes neutral. Units are profit net of stake; ROI is profit per unit risked. Breakdowns cover all graded plays. For entertainment only — past results are evidence, not a guarantee. Please gamble responsibly; 1-800-GAMBLER.