Historical Performance
Hit Rate
57.4%
Break-even at −110 is 52.4%ROI +9.7%xCover 56.3%
Model Error (MAE)
9.7
Spread 9.7 — market 9.8Total — market
Closing Line Value
+2.8%
Avg % we beat the closing line
Cumulative Units
Running profit at −110 across every graded play, chronological. Total +145u.
Units by Season
Dashed = live season, not included in the all-time total (backtest is 2016–2025).
Favorites, dogs, overs & unders
Favorites589 plays
+10.2% ROI
Win 57.7% · CLV +2.7%
Underdogs940 plays
+9.4% ROI
Win 57.3% · CLV +2.8%
Overs0 plays
- ROI
Win - · CLV n/a
Unders0 plays
- ROI
Win - · CLV n/a
By line size
% Bettable = share of games in that range where our number cleared the threshold to flag a play.
Spreads by spread size
Absolute point spread of the game.
| Spread | Plays | % Bettable | Hit rate | xCover deserved | ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 366 | 56% | 56.7% | 56.3% | +8.3% | +2.7% |
| 3-7 | 739 | 58% | 58.8% | 56.3% | +12.2% | +3.1% |
| 7-10 | 244 | 54% | 57.0% | 55.5% | +8.8% | +1.7% |
| 10+ | 180 | 60% | 54.3% | 57.0% | +3.7% | +2.6% |
Totals by total size
Posted game total (points).
| Total | Plays | % Bettable | Hit rate | xCover deserved | ROI | CLV |
|---|
Spreads · 1529 plays
Win 57.4% · ROI +9.7% · CLV +2.8% · +145u
Totals · 0 plays
Win - · ROI -% · CLV n/a · +0u
Every play was graded on a model that never trained on the game being scored. Backtest seasons are staked retroactively under today’s flat 1-unit rule — no bet before the live season was ever actually placed. Live-season plays are flat 1 unit throughout. Breakdowns cover all graded plays. For entertainment only — past results are evidence, not a guarantee. Please gamble responsibly; 1-800-GAMBLER.